Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

• Russia's population could shrink by half by the end of the century, an Atlantic Council report says.
• The Russia-Ukraine war has accelerated the population decline.
• A shrinking population threatens Russia's economy and could result in worker shortages and low growth.

Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, an Atlantic Council report says.

The report from the Washington, DC, think tank — written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University — points to Russia's long-running population decline. The nation's overall population growth has shrunk over the past 10 years, according to World Bank data.

That decline has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. More than 300,000 Russian troops had died or been injured by the end of 2023, US intelligence officials estimated, and about a million Russians fled the country after Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The demographic trend spells trouble for Russia's economy, which is already dealing with a severe worker shortage. At the end of 2023, Russia was short a record 5 million workers, according to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics.

Russia has turned to migrant and even prison labor to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, Balzer says.

"Putin's government has not evinced visible concern that Russia's population might be cut in half by century's end. Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer said in the report this week. "As Russia's population continues to decline, immigrants will be increasingly vital to economic recovery," he added.

Experts have said a shrinking population could result in several problems for Russia's economy, such as lower growth and productivity. The Atlantic Council previously predicted that by 2026, Russia's economy could fall behind Indonesia's, where the population is rising.

"Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," the recent report says.

Russia's economy isn't on solid footing to begin with, particularly as its invasion of Ukraine grows more costly and damages its economic ties to global markets. One UC Berkeley economist previously told Business Insider that Moscow was on track to fall into a severe recession by the end of the year, pointing to Russia's collapsed energy trade and its waning access to the US dollar.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect that the report was written solely by economist Harley Balzer.

This article was originally published in August 2024.