MAGA’s closing argument: Racist attacks on a critical bloc of swing-state voters

A supporter holds up the flag of Puerto Rico as Joe Biden delivers remarks at a drive-in event in Coconut Creek, Florida, on October 29, 2020. | <p>Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images</p>

Republican officials are panicking after a comedian made racist jokes about Latinos and the territory of Puerto Rico during a rally for former President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden Sunday night, fearing it might cost them votes in swing states. 

Since making gains among Latino voters in 2020, the Trump campaign has invested heavily in outreach to the Latino community and voters of color broadly. Polling suggests that seems to be helping him with Latino men in particular, who are evenly split between supporting him and Vice President Kamala Harris. It’s not yet clear to what extent the comments at the rally might undo those efforts, but in swing states where the margin of victory is expected to be narrow, even small shifts in support could have large consequences.

At the rally, Texas-based comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and said that Latinos “love making babies,” adding, “There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country.”

The backlash has been swift. The Trump campaign put out a statement saying Hinchcliffe’s comments did not reflect Trump’s thinking. Republicans in heavily Puerto Rican districts have condemned the remarks: Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) said that they “disgusted” her and did not “reflect GOP values.” Shortly after the comments, Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny posted a video of Vice President Kamala Harris on his Instagram, a post that was reportedly a Harris endorsement. 

Trump has been making racist remarks about Latino immigrants throughout his campaign; for instance, claiming that they are “poisoning the blood” of the country. But Hinchcliffe’s comments went a step further in attacking Latino American citizens, some of whom may not feel personally disparaged when Trump is talking about immigrant populations.

“This guy was talking broadly about the whole island [of Puerto Rico],” Mike Madrid, a Latino GOP strategist who is supporting Harris, said. “To equate this with just the immigrant comments of Trump in the past is missing the broader point. This guy was attacking Latino Americans by birth.”

How the fallout from the rally could impact swing states

Puerto Rican voters make up a sizable contingent of the electorate in the swing states, especially Pennsylvania, where their population was about 456,600, as of the 2020 US census. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, the polls in the state are nearly tied.

Puerto Ricans also number about 115,000 in North Carolina, 65,000 in Wisconsin, and 50,000 in Michigan. Overall, Latino voters represent a larger share of votes than the likely margin of victory in all seven battlegrounds. 

Much of Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2020 came from Puerto Ricans and Mexican Americans, once solidly blue voting blocs. This might be surprising, given Trump’s record on Puerto Rico while in office. He blocked aid to Puerto Rico following the devastating Hurricane Maria in 2017, and he reportedly joked about the US trading Puerto Rico for Greenland.

He’s since been able to appeal to Puerto Rican voters on his economic messaging as many continue to suffer from the pressure of higher prices, even though inflation has come down significantly since its peak in 2022. But there’s more hesitancy among these voters toward Trump than other GOP figures, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggesting that the former president’s newfound support might be soft. 

The question is how much the comments at the rally move the needle. With the election only days away, voters are paying attention. Whether Trump regrets it or not, this is part of his closing argument.

“I think what may have happened here is the Trump campaign finally did what the Harris campaign has not been able to do, which is lower Trump’s support with Latino voters, especially in Pennsylvania,” Madrid said. “I think the question is, by how much?”