Trudeau facing ‘iceberg revolt’ as calls grow for embattled PM to step down

“The prime minister and his operation are likely shaken and must know that for every member calling on Trudeau to leave, there are two or three others who lack the courage to say it,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.

“This is an iceberg revolt. What lurks beneath the waves could be vast, and that has got to be intimidating the prime minister, whether he admits it in public – or even in private.”

For those within the party seeking to topple Trudeau, however, there is little historical precedent in the country to give comfort.

Canada has “exactly zero tradition” of prime ministers leaving their job voluntarily, said Reid, with virtually all either suffering electoral defeat or “jumping at the very last moment when they’ve exhausted every possibility” of winning.

And as in the US, where frustration grew over Joe Biden’s place atop the Democratic ticket, there is no mechanism to force party leaders from their perch. Instead, they must chose to leave the country’s top job on their own.

“The kind of person that believes in themselves enough to be the prime minister is exactly the kind of person who does not have any intention of leaving,” said Reid. “That’s true of them all, and that is true of Justin Trudeau.”

There is also no clear replacement for the prime minister.

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted he might be interested in running for leadership of the party. Foreign minister Mélanie Joly has invaluable credentials in the province of Quebec – a must-win region for the Liberals – and public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a savvy politician with sharp instincts.

But none of them have publicly expressed an interest in the top job.

Even a wide-open leadership race would face the hurdle of selling the public an image of vigour and enthusiasm from an incumbent Liberal party nearing a decade in power.

Virtually any contender, however, would appear to be in a better position than Trudeau.

“Polling shows that a sizable portion of the public animus toward the government has become deeply, inextricably – and quite possibly very unfairly – rooted in the prime minister himself,” said Reid.

“He is a lightning rod for discontent across the country. Coupled with an almost defiant refusal on his part to signal or pursue any kind of change to the status quo, you can understand why caucus members are nervous.”

The CBC poll tracker shows the Liberals trailing nearly 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives, a showing so poor it has little historical precedent for the party.