The US is in a technological arms race with China, Air Force secretary says, and AI could decide who wins

• China is building up and modernizing its military as the US strives to maintain its edge.
• The focus on advanced technologies has put the two countries into a different kind of arms race.
• The US Air Force secretary suggested that AI could be decisive in future warfare.

China is "in a race for technological superiority" with the US, the Air Force secretary said this week, noting that as China becomes increasingly confident in its armed forces and its ability to use them to advance its national interests, "we'll be in a period of much greater risk."

In some areas, such as missiles, China appears to have an edge over American forces, he said, and its pursuit of advanced satellites and automated battle management systems have grabbed the attention of American officials as the US considers what a potential conflict between the two powers could look like. This race goes much deeper, though.

On Tuesday, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said China has been effectively modernizing the People's Liberation Army, fielding systems with the intent of challenging US forces, especially its high-value combat assets like carriers and satellites.

Kendall said at the Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium this week that China had long been taking notes on how the US military operates, "and they were not just designing their equipment and the things they were buying around being able to defeat the US," he said, "their entire military was being designed around that."

The Department of Defense has tracked monumental growth in the Chinese military for years, documenting investments in warships, bolstered missile capabilities and stockpiles, and advanced space and cyber assets. The US military refers to Beijing as its "pacing challenge," putting emphasis on the Indo-Pacific.

But despite US efforts to keep up-to-date with China's modernization, Kendall said, in some ways, "we've let them steal a march on us, quite frankly, in the systems they've fielded, that includes cruise and ballistic missiles, hypersonics," and "hundreds of satellites designed to target our joint force," as well as advanced battle management systems to integrate and control combat assets with a high degree of automation.

China has built up its Rocket Force, developing capabilities that put US military assets at military bases and airfields across the Indo-Pacific within striking range. Its force includes more traditional systems, as well as newer weapons, like the DF-17 hypersonic missile.

Kendall also noted some of the Chinese air force's air-to-air missiles have the ranges to go after tankers and command-and-control aircraft, for example, which "traditionally have operated out or range of the threats and been able to operate pretty much with impunity," he said. "That's being erased; we don't have that capability anymore."

The battlespace is changing, and across the board, the developments being made in advanced warfighting technologies have created what Kendall has called "a race for technological superiority" rather than a "classic arms race." It's no longer just about how many warships a country has.

A key part of the new arms race is artificial intelligence, which "China is moving forward aggressively in," Kendall said, adding that the applications of AI are already being seen in the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, "changing the character of warfare."

The Air Force secretary said that he doesn't think people who say that AI is "going to determine who's the winner in the next battlefield" are "all that far off."

Like China and other militaries, the US has also made AI a top priority in its military developments across the joint force, pursuing autonomous capabilities and ways to implement AI into decision-making, pattern recognition, and various assets and weapons.

For the US Air Force, for example, that line of effort has been evident in its testing of AI agents flying fighter jets and in the collaborative combat aircraft and "loyal wingman" programs. Earlier this year, Kendall flew in an AI-controlled F-16, which squared off in a dogfight against a manned F-16.

Officials said at the time that the testing marked "an important milestone" for the program and spoke to growing "confidence in the state of combat autonomy." Previous testing of AI agents has also proven effective, with officials noting that AI programs can quickly be adjusted based on new data, scenarios, and performance.

In another example, the Marines, working with the Air Force and Navy, recently tested a "loyal wingman" experimental autonomous unmanned aerial combat vehicle alongside F-35 stealth fighters, showing how the military is pushing the manned-unmanned teaming concept "a step further" for the joint force, an official said.

As the US and other powers pursue this emerging new technology at breakneck speeds, there have been questions about what the role of AI will be in the military and future warfare. War analysts and strategists have said the US military and others need a plan for AI and autonomy sooner rather than later.