Explosion at Chinese Consulate in Myanmar Follows Beijing’s Growing Acceptance of Junta

Around 5:00 p.m. local time on Friday, an explosion damaged an office building of the Chinese consulate in Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar. No casualties were reported, but the Chinese government condemned the incident as an attack, and Myanmar’s military junta attributed it to “terrorists,” although no one has claimed responsibility yet. The incident suggests that China’s balancing act among dueling sides in Myanmar’s civil war is becoming increasingly unstable. AFP reported on the Chinese government’s strong reaction to the incident:

“China expresses its deep shock at the attack and sternly condemns it,” foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said of the incident that occurred Friday.

[…] China said Monday there had been no casualties and that it had “urged Myanmar to thoroughly investigate the attack” and “go all out to catch and punish the perpetrators in accordance with the law”.

Beijing called on authorities to “comprehensively step up security for Chinese consular offices, institutions, projects and personnel in Myanmar, and prevent this kind of incident from ever happening again,” Lin said. [Source]

The Mandalay People’s Defense Force, an anti-junta group in the region, told RFA that it denied responsibility for the bombing. Burmese news website The Irrawaddy speculated about who might be behind the attack:

After the incident, residents of Mandalay quickly blamed the junta-allied Pyu Saw Htee militia, as people said they saw militia  members flee the area of the consulate in a car right after the attack.

Local political observers and China watchers thought it might be a regime tactic to direct China’s anger toward anti-regime resistance forces, taking advantage of Myanmar people’s frustration and anger at Beijing over the enormous pressure China has put on armed resistance forces since Wang’s visit.

Other observers speculated that a possible conflict between the consulate and Chinese in Mandalay may be the reason, but many think the attack was politically motivated. Other sources in Mandalay and Yangon attributed the attack to the same regime-linked groups that organized arson attacks on Chinese-owned textile factories in Hlaing Thayar Township in Yangon in 2021. [Source]

China has been deepening its ties with Myanmar’s junta over the past year, which experts see as a bid to reinforce the junta’s authority as its power weakens. In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar, where Wang promised technical support and aid for conducting a future census and election, which some critics viewed as China’s endorsement of the junta. Last month, Myanmar’s defense minister, General Tin Aung San, met with the vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, General He Weidong, at the 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum to discuss increased cooperation in military technology and the “dispatch of trainees.” Next month, Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing will travel to China in November, two sources close to the military told AFP. This would be his first known trip to China since his coup in 2021. A Washington Post investigation from June also revealed that Chinese authorities and Myanmar’s military government had collaborated in protecting criminal networks along their shared border.

Meanwhile, reports show that Chinese officials have exerted pressure to prevent collaboration between ethnic armed resistance groups and slow their advance on junta-controlled areas. Myanmar Now reported that on Sunday Chinese authorities shut down all border crossings in areas controlled by the Kachin Independence Organization, an ethnic armed group fighting the military junta. Writing for The Diplomat on Monday, its Southeast Asia editor Sebastian Strangio stated, “It is hard to imagine that the attack on the Chinese consulate in Mandalay, minor as it was, was not related in some way to the growing Chinese backing for the Myanmar military”:

Despite being a major arms supplier to Min Aung Hlaing’s regime, China has been largely ambivalent about the coup regime, holding it at a degree of diplomatic remove. Beijing has refused to invite Min Aung Hlaing to the country, while other high-ranking junta officials have generally been invited not on a bilateral level but to attend conferences or other multilateral events. This reflected both the uncertain situation in the country, and the extent to which the coup has complicated China’s economic and strategic interests in Myanmar.

But things appear to have changed over the past year as the junta’s military position has deteriorated in many parts of the country, including in Shan State along the border with China. As I noted last week, the Chinese government which has begun expressing strong support for the junta’s planned election as a potential off-ramp, has pressured ethnic armed groups in border areas to halt their attacks on the junta and has ramped up arms shipments to the junta, including, in August, possession of six additional Chinese-made FTC-2000G fighter jets.

[…] All of this appears to suggest that China a) fears the collapse of the military junta; and b) that such a collapse would be detrimental, if not fatal, to its strategic interests in Myanmar, which involve integrating Myanmar into a China-centered regional economy, preventing the spread of Western influence, and opening a corridor between Yunnan province and Myanmar’s Indian Ocean coast. [Source]

There is a long history of public protests in front of Chinese diplomatic missions in Myanmar, dating back to deadly riots in 1967. More recent examples include protests against Chinese-backed projects such as the Myitsone hydropower dam and the Letpadaung Copper Mine in 2014, and against China for its perceived role in the 2021 military coup.

Chinese state-owned companies have also helped Myanmar’s junta expand its digital surveillance capabilities. According to a new report published last week by Freedom House, internet freedoms in Myanmar sank to a record low and matched the level of restrictions in China, with both countries ranking at the bottom of the list of 72 countries. The report states that Myanmar’s ranking is due to the junta’s creation of “a mass censorship and surveillance regime to suppress the activities of civilian pro-democracy activists and armed resistance groups.”