Elections analyst assesses pollsters’ blind spots days away from Election Day
RealClearPolitics elections analyst Sean Trende discusses the state of the 2024 race on 'Sunday Night in America.'
Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are nearly tied in Wisconsin, a key battleground state, with just eight days until Election Day, according to a new poll.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Monday found Trump and Harris neck and neck in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, respectively, from a statewide poll of 500 likely voters. The razor-thin results fell within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Harris, however, leads Trump in Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a predictor of which candidate takes the White House. The poll of 300 likely voters in Door County found Harris leading Trump in that area 50% to 47%, which is within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.Â
Wisconsin is one of three Rust Belt states that voted for Trump in 2016, then flipped back to the Democrats in 2020. President Biden won the state by just 20,682 votes, or 0.7 points.
Trump held a massive campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Sunday, with just over a week to go until Election Day. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)
In Wisconsin, which is defined by its White working-class population like other competitive Midwestern states, 58% of the state’s voters are White without a college degree, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. That is 15 points higher than the national electorate.
Harris spoke about her faith during a service at the Church of Christian Compassion in Philadelphia on Sunday. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll also found that in Wisconsin, Harris has a 14-point lead over Trump among women, 55% to 41%, respectively. The result flips to Trump’s favor among men, showing Trump ahead 18 percentage points over Harris, 56% to 38%, respectively.
MILLIONS OF VOTERS HAVE ALREADY CAST BALLOTS FOR NOV. 5 ELECTION
Wisconsin is one of the three so-called "Blue Wall" states – the others being Michigan and Pennsylvania – that make up seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. Harris and Trump are aggressively competing in these states, which also include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
As of Monday morning, early voters in Wisconsin cast 850,163 ballots, whereas nationwide more than 41 million votes have already been cast in the election.Â
Fox News’ Rémy Numa and Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.
